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Credit Freeze Hits Economy
added: 2008-10-03

The world economy continues to slide closer to the edge of recession with manufacturing around the world taking a major hit last month from the credit crunch and the credit freeze.

The world's major economies seem to be slowing much faster than thought and towards contraction, not just below-trend levels of activity.

The series of glum reports had an immediate impact on stock markets overnight: many were down 2% or more, oil prices fell by more than $US4 a barrel to under $US94, copper lost 6% to $US2.60 a pound in New York, 19 month low.

Platinum and palladium tumbled with platinum falling under $US1,000 an ounce for the first time since late 2006 as car sales slumped around the world. Gold shed $US42 an ounce, or more than 4% to $US843. Silver lost 12% to just over $US11 an ounce.

That left the Australian dollar down more than 1 US cent at close to 77 US cents.

Stockmarkets around the world faded overnight, not because of the continuing worries about the bank bailout plan, but because of the sudden and sharp decline in manufacturing around the world.

Wall Street was off 3%-4%.

In fact some economists reckon that there was an outright slowdown in September thanks to the impact of the latest eruption in the credit crunch and the lending freeze that developed as Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac were bailout out and then a succession of crisis starting with Lehman Brothers failure in the middle of the month.

It's reminder that will fall on deaf ears and closed minds in Washington and other countries where people oppose the $US700 billion bailout and want to push Wall Street and banks and financiers generally.

The size and spread of the global slump makes it clear that economies are already adjusting to the possibility of a collapse in finance and a freeze in lending: the jobless queues will surge from now on, Europe's is rising and America's will rise sharply tonight.

Manufacturing surveys in Japan, Europe and in the US made for unhappy reading: China showed a small gain; in Australia our manufacturing sector drifted in negative territory in September with no real improvement apparent.

US car sales slumped sharply in the month and shares of leading manufacturers were weak.

In fact there was a clue in the car industry at what happened in the US, and perhaps elsewhere. Sales and visitor traffic to dealer showrooms stopped after the weekend when Lehman brothers failed, Merrill Lynch was taken over by Bank of America and AIG was nationalised.

Banks started withdrawing credit lines, shutting down lending and leaving their cash with central banks.

So it's no wonder that America's PMI reading was 43.5 in September, down from August's of 49.9.

That was the lowest reading since the 40.8 measure in October 2001, the month following the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington.

Economists had been forecasting a reading of 49.5, so they were surprised at the size of the fall.(50 points is break even in these surveys with readings above that indicating optimism and expansion and below indicating pessimism and contraction in activity).

The index has averaged a reading of 49.6% for the past year, so the September outcome is a significant lurch downwards in pessimism and activity among manufacturers, who have been keeping the US economy alive with strong gains in exports.

In Japan sentiment among large manufacturers in the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey went negative for the first time since June 2003, continuing a trend of falling confidence that has seen the economy contract in the second quarter of 2008 and exports and industrial production fall sharply.

Exports to the US fell 22% in August as car companies slashed local production and exports. Unemployment in Japan hit a four year high of 4.2% in August and the economy seems to be worsening faster than forecast.

In the eurozone, the purchasing managers' index for September was confirmed at a reading of 45, down sharply from the 'boom like' 53.2 outcome a year ago. Economists say that in this survey a figure above 50 indicates a majority of the survey's respondents are reporting rising output while anything under 50 suggest contraction.

In Britain, a survey like the PMI slumped from 45.3 in August to 41 last month, the weakest on record. The housing and retail slumps in Britain are hurting manufacturing, which is now being further whacked by slowing activity levels in Europe and the US, its two major markets.

Not even a 12%-plus fall in the value of the pound has helped, unlike the US where the weaker greenback stimulated a surge in exports that is now starting to fade.

US economists reckon that the last time the country's manufacturing sector felt this sick was back in early 2001 when then Fed chairman, Alan Greenspan cut interest rates outside a regular Fed meeting by 0.50% and kept cutting, helping to ay the groundwork for the credit boom and bust!

The last time the US experienced such a sudden drop in its index was in January 2001, and helped prompt the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan, its then chairman, to cut rates by half a percentage point outside a scheduled meeting.

China's PMI index rose to a reading of 51.2 from 48.4 in both August and July. They were lowered by the slowdown engineered to accommodate the two Olympics in Beijing. But it was still sharply lower than the April level of 59.2.

Australia's PMI in September was relatively stable in September, up by 0.2 points to 47.2 and but still under the 50 level separating expansion from contraction.

The Australian Industry Group said that manufacturing activity fell for a fourth successive month in September, thanks to higher official and commercial interest rates squeezing consumer and housing-related demand; slower trading partner growth, especially in Asia. Production fell again in September, though at a slightly slower rate than in August, in line with continued declines in new orders.

The credit crunch and continuing high petrol prices, plus rising unemployment and tightening credit standards have conspired to force US car sales sharply lower last month.

According to figures compiled by the consultancy AutoData sales of new cars and light trucks dropped 27% in the US last month from August of 2007.

It's a sign of what lies ahead of us if the credit freeze continues and deepens.

From other figures, September looked like the worst month for car makers since January 1991 and it is possible that less than a million cars were sold in the country for the first time in years.

Sales from the major car makers fell sharply in September, as tighter credit for buyers added to pressures already forcing buyers to stay away from showrooms.

Figures from some analysts reckon that dealer traffic fell 50% after the middle of the month as the financial crisis erupted anew and its not surprising that General Motors' largest Chevrolet dealer in the US went into bankruptcy protection on Monday as a result.

Carmax, a big listed car dealer is sacking 600 people or 4% of the workforce after second quarter earnings fell 78%. It won't be the last of similar moves.

The sales declines were broad based, with Japanese automakers reporting the same kind of double-digit declines that have whacked Ford, GM and Chrysler.

Many prospective buyers have been unable to get the credit they needed to buy a car and a growing number of dealers have had their own credit cut off or curtailed, causing widespread failures.

From comments by car company executives, they don't think they've seen the bottom yet.

Sales of cars and light trucks fell 35% from August 2007 at Ford, 32% at Toyota and 24% at Honda. GM's were down 16% (which was taken as good news) Nissan reported a 37% drop, Chrysler a 33%, fall and Hyundai, 25%.

Kia's sales fell 28%, Ford associate; Mazda saw its sales slump a massive 36% on August 2007.

Among smaller brands, Fuji's Subaru had a good month; sales were down just 12% but for Mitsubishi misery with a 39% drop and even worse for Suzuki with a 47% plunge.

Chrysler, which includes the Chrysler, Dodge and Jeep brands, saw sales of its light trucks drop 34% and car sales lost 29%.

Toyota's September drop was the sharpest percentage drop in US sales for the Japanese giant in 21 years. It cut output in Japan by more than 17% last month as well, while Honda and Nissan also cut production in their home markets.

It was Honda's worst monthly sales performance since 1981, and a sign that the good fuel economy it boasts of for its models, is no longer enough to buck broad industry declines.

In Britain Ford, Jaguar Land Rover, Toyota, Honda and Bentley are cutting production or going to a four day week, but not, as yet laying people off.

Like Toyota and Honda, Ford says its also cutting back across Europe as sales slow.


Source: ABN Newswire

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