The Conference Board CEI for Australia, a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in December, following small increases since March 2010. Retail trade has declined for three consecutive months through December. Holding steady this month, the Coincident Economic Index grew by 1.1 percent (a 2.2 percent annual rate) in the six-month period through the end of 2010 – about the same rate as the previous six months. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 0.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2010, slower than the 4.6 percent (annual rate) increase in the second quarter.
The Conference Board LEI for Australia continued its upward trend through the end of 2010, after a brief pause in the third quarter. However, its six-month growth rate moderated somewhat from the first half of 2010. At the same time, The Conference Board CEI for Australia has generally increased throughout 2010 and its six-month growth rate has been fairly steady. Taken together, the current behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic growth will likely be moderate in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS
All seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Australia increased in December. The positive contributors to the index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are the sales–to-inventories ratio, building approvals, money supply, share prices, yield spread, gross operating surplus, and rural goods exports.
With the 0.7 percent increase in December, The Conference Board LEI for Australia now stands at 121.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in November and increased 0.7 percent in October. During the six-month period through December, the leading economic index increased 2.3 percent, and four of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 57.1 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Two of the four components in The Conference Board CEI for Australia increased in December. The increases – in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller – occurred in household gross disposable income and employed persons. Retail trade declined, while industrial production remained unchanged in December.
Holding steady in December, The Conference Board CEI for Australia now stands at 118.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in November and increased 0.1 percent in October. During the six-month period through December, the coincident economic index increased 1.1 percent, with two of the four components in the series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
